Free tool

TikTok Shop
forecaster.

Model six months of launch economics before you spend a dollar. Pick a posture, put in your numbers, and see GMV, costs, break-even and halo lift across three scenarios side by side.

Step 01Pick your posture
Step 02Your numbers
Standard
Advanced

Unit economics

What a TikTok Shop order is worth after discounts, before tax and shipping. Every brand's is different — enter your own.
Required
Product, packaging and pick/pack if you count it as product cost. Every brand's margins are different — enter your own.
Required
What it costs you to get one order out the door.
Default 5
Orders refunded or returned. Varies a lot by category — apparel runs high, consumables low. Deducted as lost revenue.
Default 8%
Platform commission taken off GMV. Varies by category.
Default 6%

Commissions & fees

Blended affiliate rate across everyone selling for you.
Default 15%
Performance share on TikTok Shop GMV.
Default 7%

Creators & sampling

Units you send to creators each month.
Default 200
What one sample costs you to make.
Default 16.50
Bonuses and contest prizes on top of base commission.
Default 1,000
Everyone else keeps the product and goes quiet. Most sample programs land between 20% and 40%. Be honest here.
Default 35%
The single biggest lever in this model. Most creators sell very little; a few sell a lot.
Default 60
Drives the content volume and earned-media figures.
Default 3
How fast the bonus pool scales as the program grows.
Default 10%

Paid media

GMV Max and Video Shopping Ads combined.
Default 5,000
Gross GMV returned per dollar of ad spend in month one.
Default 3.0
How fast you scale budget once something works.
Default 10%
Efficiency gain as creative and targeting compound. Keep this modest — ROAS rarely climbs for long while spend is also growing.
Default 4%

Halo on other channels

Modeled total lift across your other channels while TikTok is running, split between the channels you tick. This is an estimate, not measured attribution.
Median affiliate video, not the one that pops. Used only for the earned-media figure.
Default 2,000
What those views would have cost you to buy.
Default 15
Step 03Break-even

Where each posture stops costing you money.

Month by month

Six months of P&L for each scenario. Scroll sideways on narrow screens.

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Next step

Want the real numbers?

A forecast is a model. Send us your catalog and margins and we'll tell you what we actually think it does — and whether TikTok Shop is worth your time at all.

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